Aurora forecast for June 23/24 tonight!

Byauroranotify

TONIGHT’s AURORA forecast!!! Thanks for all your questions and comments and excited plans for tonight. For those who missed the big show last night, you have the RARE opportunity to catch the lights again. Please do not complain anymore, and head on out. Be ready.

“Translated version” written by Aurora Borealis Notifications=
TONIGHT June 23/24 2015 the aurora *may or may not* be seen in the most northern states (MI, MN, WI, ND, MT, ME, VT, etc) and most of Canada. Aurora will not be seen in areas where the midnight sun is seen ie: high latitudes. The Kp level may reach 4 or 5.

TOMORROW night June 24/25, the aurora may dip down a bit lower and may be seen in mid to northern states (SD, WY, NE, etc), and most of Canada. The Kp level expected is 6 or 7.

This could change by the hour. Sometimes the forecast is dead wrong, and sometimes it is better than anyone expected. The good news is that it is a weekday, and generally we see better updates on weekdays! The only thing you can do is TRY and catch the lights!!!

Source: NOAA Space Weather http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/report-and-forecast-solar-and-geophysical-activity and
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Jun), minor storm to severe storm levels on day two (25 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on day three (26 Jun).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/40
Minor Storm 40/35/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/05 (these numbers are percentages of the chance you’ll see aurora each night)

B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 79/85/65

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale
G4).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 23-Jun 25 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 23-Jun 25 2015

Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25
00-03UT 7 (G3) 5 (G1) 7 (G3)
03-06UT 8 (G4) 5 (G1) 7 (G3)
06-09UT 6 (G2) 4 6 (G2)
09-12UT 5 (G1) 4 6 (G2)
12-15UT 5 (G1) 3 6 (G2)
15-18UT 5 (G1) 3 5 (G1)
18-21UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 5 (G1)
21-00UT 5 (G1) 6 (G2) 5 (G1)

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain agitated with G1-G2 (Minor – Moderate) for the remainder of today, day one (23 Jun), in continued response to the 21 Jun CME. The 22 Jun CME is expected to arrive late on day two (24 Jun) with G2 levels at onset, and will likely enhance geomagnetic conditions to G3 (Strong) levels in the early hours of day three (25 Jun), before conditions taper off over the day.