CME hit, so far nothing grand

Byauroranotify

The CME finally hit, but so far a little weaker than expected. Fluctuating Kp levels, 2, 3, 4. North Bz.

A lot of media hype with this storm, resulting in me answering some questions and disappointing a few folks. Lots of people (hundreds texting me) from the big cities in Oregon expecting to see lights right from their homes. Not going to happen. You must get away, far away, from the city. Go to the coast, or far east into the countryside. And that’s only if the Kp level rises to Kp 6 or higher (G2 or higher storm).

“What time?” is the number one question. The answer is anytime it’s dark. The more specific answer is when the IMF is in alignment. Another good answer is anytime in the middle of the night because that’s when the aurora oval is solidly over that section of the earth.

What’s going to happen tonight? We could see auroras as far south as….whatever the Kp level rises to. At the G3 Watch level it’s at now, we could still see Kp 7. It could be an all nighter, or it could be a bust. Kp 7 may produce auroras far south into OR, but still not in the cities. You need a dark sky.

Alaska, be ready. Canada, yes.

6 Comments

    2. I just lost a long, rambling comment, opening with a lame joke [insert tedious, generic joke #723 here], introducing myself via reference to “severely OCD” consumption of data, and subsequent esoteric analysis, archiving, ad nauseam (an ex called me “the apogean archivist”).

      But stepping away from that, the UAF/Poker Flat images from what time I’ve spent here this evening/morning have been gorgeous — http://allsky.gi.alaska.edu/ (here, too — live.alaskaauroracam.com/). First monitoring AR2473’s M1.9-class flare, and now this… the types of events that I have personally been looking forward to as I try to close a trying year, one dominated, quite simply, by a state of mourning…..

      Apologies for a somber note in this odd attempt to reconstruct lost data… I’ve tried to let myself enjoy what I’ve seen…..

      Thank you, incidentally, for the wonderful site and e-mail notifications. Happy 2016. Prost.

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