Auroras predicted tonight in the northern USA

Storm level auroras predicted tonight for the upper portion of the contiguous USA and Canada. For the latest info, see our Facebook page. As of this post at 650 pm Alaska time, data is looking weak, so it could be a late night!

Saturday night and Sunday night are also predicted active auroras.

Look north, look low. Adjust your eyes to the dark. The biggest tip is you need to be patient and wait. Parking somewhere for 30 minutes while staring at your phone is not the way to do it. Turn off your car lights and your phone. Happy hunting!

Tonight’s forecast June 24/25 not as good as Monday night.

The aurora forecast for tonight is active, with a possible Kp level of 5. Northern states may or may not see the lights tonight. If they are seen, it won’t be like the storm on Monday night. Look low and look north. It’s still good, but not as originally thought.

It’s summer in Alaska, with almost 24 hour daylight. More frequent posts on this website will be made beginning August 15.

Aurora forecast for June 23/24 tonight!

TONIGHT’s AURORA forecast!!! Thanks for all your questions and comments and excited plans for tonight. For those who missed the big show last night, you have the RARE opportunity to catch the lights again. Please do not complain anymore, and head on out. Be ready.

“Translated version” written by Aurora Borealis Notifications=
TONIGHT June 23/24 2015 the aurora *may or may not* be seen in the most northern states (MI, MN, WI, ND, MT, ME, VT, etc) and most of Canada. Aurora will not be seen in areas where the midnight sun is seen ie: high latitudes. The Kp level may reach 4 or 5.

TOMORROW night June 24/25, the aurora may dip down a bit lower and may be seen in mid to northern states (SD, WY, NE, etc), and most of Canada. The Kp level expected is 6 or 7.

This could change by the hour. Sometimes the forecast is dead wrong, and sometimes it is better than anyone expected. The good news is that it is a weekday, and generally we see better updates on weekdays! The only thing you can do is TRY and catch the lights!!!

Source: NOAA Space Weather http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/report-and-forecast-solar-and-geophysical-activity and
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Jun), minor storm to severe storm levels on day two (25 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on day three (26 Jun).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/40
Minor Storm 40/35/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/05 (these numbers are percentages of the chance you’ll see aurora each night)

B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 79/85/65

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale
G4).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 23-Jun 25 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 23-Jun 25 2015

Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25
00-03UT 7 (G3) 5 (G1) 7 (G3)
03-06UT 8 (G4) 5 (G1) 7 (G3)
06-09UT 6 (G2) 4 6 (G2)
09-12UT 5 (G1) 4 6 (G2)
12-15UT 5 (G1) 3 6 (G2)
15-18UT 5 (G1) 3 5 (G1)
18-21UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 5 (G1)
21-00UT 5 (G1) 6 (G2) 5 (G1)

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain agitated with G1-G2 (Minor – Moderate) for the remainder of today, day one (23 Jun), in continued response to the 21 Jun CME. The 22 Jun CME is expected to arrive late on day two (24 Jun) with G2 levels at onset, and will likely enhance geomagnetic conditions to G3 (Strong) levels in the early hours of day three (25 Jun), before conditions taper off over the day.

Lights seen tonight!!! Head on out if you are in the northern contiguous USA and most of Canada!

The data is excellent and we hit Kp 9 for a short time this morning. Europe did see some lights, but the Bz did not cooperate most of their night. Clouds cover some of northern Europe as well. Now that it is dark in the contiguous USA, reports are coming in to ABN. Lights are currently being seen in half the northern states.

Reporting lights are: ME, NH, VT, NY, PA, WI, MN. More states to be added. Head on out to catch a glimpse!

Alaskans, no chance at viewing the lights for those in the interior and much of south central. More southern locations have a chance. Happy Summer Solstice!!

Solar activity means auroras are coming!

auroras expected

There has been quite a lot of activity on the sun lately, and for us, that means auroras are coming! In most of Alaska, we won’t see anything, but if you are living in an area where it gets dark at night, there is a high chance. Most of Canada and the upper portion of the contiguous USA may see active displays. Look toward the north with a clear view, and get away from all light pollution (city streets, buildings, cars). When? Tonight and tomorrow night (Sun and Mon night) and possibly THIS WHOLE WEEK!!! Be ready for lights!

Feel free to share your joy on the facebook page for ABN. Report your sighting on facebook, twitter @auroranotify or text 907-385-7385 and we’ll spread the news.

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