Incoming auroras all this week!

The aurora forecast is updated and finally the much anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CHHSS) is expected to bring us auroras. The forecast for Monday night/Tuesday morning is Kp 3. Tuesday night it is forecast Kp 4, and Wednesday night we are on a storm watch for G1 conditions.

The outlook is calling for continued storm conditions for the next several days. As usual, we watch the data and the forecasts daily and nightly so we do not miss the chance at seeing the aurora.

Fairbanks, Alaska tonight has snow. Monday night is a night for rest as it’s cloudy and the roads are freshly covered in snow. Then beginning Tuesday night it is game on for aurora watchers! Be ready to see the aurora every night this week (as the forecast indicates). Keep in mind that a Kp level does not mean or guarantee auroras. Auroras come and go, they are not always constant. Be ready for viewing all night long. This means sunset to sunrise. To view, get away from light pollution! Those further away from the city will have an easier time seeing it. Since the roads could be icy, use caution. It is not necessary to drive dramatic distances to see aurora if you do not want to drive on fresh snow or ice. You may see others lists of where to go and some of the locations are not actually very good or safe.

Anchorage! Be ready every night this week. The weather forecasts predict decent weather. Clouds may block the view, so be ready to drive. Watch your weather radar. Don’t know where to drive too? First, check the weather. Second, find a place with a view to the north. Here is a list for the south central Alaska area. Tour guides are OPEN and available.

Other Alaska locations also be ready nightly. Yes, including the inside passage and southeast! A Kp 5 is expected, and it is highly possible to see aurora if the weather is decent.

Canada, the further north the better, but many mid locations have an excellent chance. There are many Canadian aurora webcams listed here.

Lower 48 states. This is a big maybe! There are no guarantees until we see what the solar wind speeds are and if the Bz is negative. If you are flexible with traveling, go as far north as you can get to Canada for the best chance. Go where there are big wide openings to the north. Bodies of water, flat fields, etc. Watch the Duluth aurora cam for hints to see if the aurora is present. I often get this message— “Should I or shouldn’t I travel?”. For a CHHSS, traveling great distances is generally not a good idea unless you want to travel anyway. Hope for the best but be prepared to see nothing. You can also leave at the last minute. Watch the data and be ready to leave asap when the data is looking good. For this event, as it stands now, I would recommend going as far north as you can (note I said this twice in this paragraph). This means the Canadian border. My only exception is Washington state. Go to the center of your state where it is flatter and clearer to the north. Or go to the coast for a view to the north. Follow along for posts and comments in our facebook group. Advice is given for any location in the world. Many of our members live in or are from the midwest.

One thing is certain. If you get a notification on your phone from an app that tells you the Kp level has changed, that is not serious aurora watching. That merely tells you the past 3 hours the Kp level was that number. You need the other data. You need to know what space weather is doing. Checking once a day is not enough for the serious chaser. Now is the time to start watching and checking the data. Many apps have the other data. Sometimes they don’t update right away, so be sure to refresh. This year, many of the app makers have done a better job adding the data to their apps. Here is a hint: percentages of seeing the aurora on some apps include the weather not just space weather. So if it is cloudy, your chances are smaller. I prefer to keep my aurora watching seperate from my weather watching. If the aurora forecast is good, and the data is good, look at the sky. Decide if you are going out or not. Recently, there was a 1% chance of seeing aurora according to the app. The aurora was dancing outside my window. Look for yourself.

Camera test shots are a great way to capture anything faint that may be on the horizon. Have you practiced your night sky photography lately?

Let’s wrap this up because I can keep going. CONCLUSION–> BE READY FOR AN INCOMING SOLAR STORM EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. Watch for updates! Be rested! Be packed up! Cameras charged! Maps looked at!

If you need one on one help with your aurora viewing or your trip, or just like what I have to say or enjoy the live stream webcam over North Pole, Alaska, then please join my supporter group Aurora Tonight on Facebook. If you are not on Facebook, you can join on this website. Both ways of joining have access to the live stream and advice. The cost is only $2.49 a month. Thank you for your support during the difficult tourism this year and always.

~Amy

Photos: faint but detailed aurora exploded over North Pole, Alaska Oct 10, 2020