If the data looks like this….
#1. Solar winds are 350 km/sec, the Bt is 1, the Bz is 0. Can you see the aurora (in high latitudes)?
The data is weak. Aurora is unlikely.
#2. Solar winds are 800 km/sec, the Bt is 25, the Bz is -20. Can you see the aurora (in high latitudes)?
With the data that great, get outside now!!! High solar winds, a high Bt, and a great negative Bz. These are perfect conditions for a great event.
#3. What do the numbers mean on this forecast?
This forecast indicates that on March 8 there is a 30% chance of Kp 4, 15% chance of Kp 5, 1% chance of Kp 6.
On March 9, there is a 30% chance of Kp 4, 15% chance of Kp 5, 1% chance of Kp 6.
March 10, there is a 25% chance of Kp 4, 10% chance of Kp 5, 1% chance of Kp 6.
#4. You are in North Dakota away from light pollution. Can you see the aurora if the data looks like this?
No. The data is very weak and aurora is not visible from North Dakota.
#5. You are in northern Maine in a dark area. Are you anticipating aurora tonight?
If the data remains the same or improves, Maine has a good chance at seeing aurora in dark areas to the north.
#6. You are in Anchorage, Alaska. Will you see the aurora tonight?
Select all that apply:
Anchorage, Alaska may see a glow on the horizon to the north at the very least.
#7. Based on this model, is earth expecting possible aurora?
This model shows 2 CMEs directed toward earth. The first one has a shock wave depicted stronger than the second one.
#8. You are in Alaska. Using this graph, can you see the aurora right now?
The graph indicates that it is daytime in Alaska, not to mention the data is very weak.
#9. You woke up in Tasmania and saw this chart. Did you miss an aurora show?
#10. You are in Iceland and the weather is clear. Can you see the aurora right now, based on this graph?
If the weather is clear, you have a 10% chance of seeing the aurora right now in Iceland. This is probably due to a positive (northward) Bz, and/or weak overall conditions. There may be a green haze. The HP (Hemispheric power) is quite low.
#11. Based on this model, do you inform your friends that we are expecting aurora?
#12. Based on this model, is earth expecting possible aurora?
Select all that apply:
#13. Reading this data, will you stay awake to see if the aurora will come out (northern latitudes)?
With a spike in solar wind speed and a spike in the Bt, there is definitely something going on. Watch and wait.
#14. Reading the Bt and Bz, are you expecting aurora?
Yes, the Bz is negative (also referred to as southward).
#15. Reading the Bt and Bz, are you expecting aurora?
The Bz is trending positive, so until it is a steady negative, we may not be able to see aurora. The slight negative bounces may show us very brief aurora, if anything at all.
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