If the Data looks like This

The data is weak. Aurora is unlikely.

With the data that great, get outside now!!! High solar winds, a high Bt, and a great negative Bz. These are perfect conditions for a great event.

This forecast indicates that on March 8 there is a 30% chance of Kp 4, 15% chance of Kp 5, 1% chance of Kp 6.

On March 9, there is a 30% chance of Kp 4, 15% chance of Kp 5, 1% chance of Kp 6.

March 10, there is a 25% chance of Kp 4, 10% chance of Kp 5, 1% chance of Kp 6.

No. The data is very weak and aurora is not visible from North Dakota.

If the data remains the same or improves, Maine has a good chance at seeing aurora in dark areas to the north.

Anchorage, Alaska may see a glow on the horizon to the north at the very least.

This model shows 2 CMEs directed toward earth. The first one has a shock wave depicted stronger than the second one.

The graph indicates that it is daytime in Alaska, not to mention the data is very weak.

Magnetometers are used to measure variations in the Earth’s magnetic field that are caused by the influx of charged particles during geomagnetic storms and solar events. By monitoring these variations, scientists can gain insights into the behavior of the solar wind, the state of the magnetosphere, and the conditions that lead to the occurrence of auroras. Magnetometers are often strategically placed in different locations around the world to create a network of measurements that help researchers understand the global patterns and effects of these space weather phenomena.

A graph depicting these movements is a great indicator of the aurora being present due to the large fluctuations. A reading of the IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) data would clarify if the aurora could be seen.

In the graph depicted above, attention to detail is necessary. This was screenshot in June and also close to morning. The midnight sun would be shining at this time. Those in lower latitudes may have a heads up, but for much of Norway, it is too sunny.

If the weather is clear, you have a 10% chance of seeing the aurora right now in Iceland. This is probably due to a positive (northward) Bz, and/or weak overall conditions. There may be a green haze. The HP (Hemispheric power) is quite low.

With a spike in solar wind speed and a spike in the Bt, there is definitely something going on. Watch and wait.

Yes, the Bz is negative (also referred to as southward).

The Bz is trending positive, so until it is a steady negative, we may not be able to see aurora. The slight negative bounces may show us very brief aurora, if anything at all.