#1. Solar winds are 670 km/sec, the Bt is 10, the Bz is +9. Can you see the aurora (in high latitudes)?
The solar winds are high, and the Bt is good, but the direction of the solar winds (the Bz) needs to be southward. Until that happens, aurora may not be seen or may be faint. With solar winds that high, wait to see if anything changes.
#2. Using the WSA-ENLIL model, aurora may be expected because...
This model shows a side swipe or a glancing blow from a CME. If this model turns out to be accurate, then we will see aurora, not as good as a direct hit, but still decent.
#3. In the forecast discussion, a solar sector boundary crossing is mentioned. Is this good for aurora watchers?
A solar sector boundary crossing (SBC) is when the Earth’s magnetic field lines abruptly change direction from pointing away from the Sun to pointing towards the Sun, or vice versa. This happens when the Earth passes through a region of the solar wind where the magnetic field lines have opposite polarity.
#4. If the data looks like this, can you see the aurora in the typical aurora zone?
The data shows that the aurora was highly likely at first, but then the Bz went northward (positive). It is slightly bouncing up and down, therefore, keep watching the sky to see if the aurora comes out. A steady solar wind about the 500 km/sec level is decent, especially when paired with a negative Bz.
#5. If the data looks like this, can the aurora be seen?
Select all that apply:
Using this chart which is featured on an app, we see the Bz on top and the Bz on the bottom. Don’t get the two confused, as NOAA Space Weather charts show the Bt on top.
The Bz is positive but it was moving up and down, so keep watching for it to change. With the Bt being high, keep an eye on the Bz because this could be a nice aurora.
Note the time on the photo. Depending on your time zone, the sun may be rising.
#6. With numbers like these, would you stay up or go to bed?
The data readings on this chart are very poor. The solar wind speed is slow, the Bz is positive 1, the Bt is only 2. The combination of these numbers look poor for aurora watching. There might be a faint low band on the horizon in the high latitudes but that’s it.
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