no sign of CME yet as of 8pm

I was excited to post about the incoming CME which was due today in our daytime, but I have no news to report. We continue to watch and wait. Aside from the CME arrival, the forecast for the next 3 nights looks excellent for the entire state of Alaska. Happy aurora watching!
~Amy

Valentine’s Auroras Sunday night

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Happy Feb 13 today! Tonight’s aurora forecast calls for Kp 2. This means that in clear areas the northern and interior part of Alaska should see lights tonight. Anchorage area, only a chance at the northern horizon.

The small and unlikely possibility of an early arrival of a coronal mass ejection exists. The forecast time for arrival is approx 12 noon Alaska time Sunday the 14th. Experienced aurora chasers know that the time is never spot on, so we will be ready both very early in the morning on Sunday as well as the forecast time of arrival. We are expecting a tell tale shock wave, then we will get the heads up the storm is approaching. If it arrives in our daytime here in Alaska, then northern Europe will get the first blast. I will post another update when needed. If anything changes, I will definitely update a new post and social media.

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Are you looking for the perfect way to spend this Valentine’s Day? Book your own private photo shoot under the Aurora! As of this post, there is only one slot open on Sunday night, but other dates are available. Call (253)254-3271 or send a message to Sean Kurdziolek Photography

Sean K Valentines Photo Shoot

Auroras expected tonight Kp 4

Expect auroras tonight on most of Alaska where the weather is clear. Kp 4 expected. This means the aurora may be seen as far south as the Kenai peninsula, Valdez, Seward areas. Most of Canada may see lights when it’s dark, and depending on the Bz, northern parts off of northern states may see a green glow on the horizon.

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Tonight’s forecast is quiet to unsettled, meaning Kp 2

Tonight, you may already be in bed. The skies are clear in Fairbanks and the aurora is faint. Not much is expected tonight, but if you are in Fairbanks and it is your only night out, then yes, head on out to catch the lights (toward the north if not overhead). With a lower Kp level or faint lights the best location is Cleary Summit On the link, you will find a map and a photo of Cleary. You can see for miles and miles in the right direction, and if the lights are out at all, you will see them on top Cleary. Other locations can be found at Where To Go. The expected Kp level is 2. Same forecast for tomorrow night. Thursday night and throughout the weekend, we are expecting more active lights (Kp 4 predicted at this point) due to a high speed solar stream.

Cozy in bed? Check the lights out on cam at ABN Aurora Cam, Alaska Aurora Cam, or the All-sky cam at Poker Flat. For Wasilla, check out the Kick Ax Cam.

For a full list of aurora cams see Cams on auroranotify.com

In Fairbanks, no matter the forecast, there is a chance to see the northern lights. Even a Kp 0 can produce a good display. This is one reason why you cannot rely on simple Kp alerts or Kp forecasts. Other factors are considered. The solar wind speed and particle density matter as well. There is some good activity on the sun this week, which produces the conditions we need for auroras. Each and every day the forecast is reevaluated and updated. Relying on the 27 day solar cycle is ok, but it is best to get updated daily. You can view the raw data yourself at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ or continue to watch this website and also the aurora social media pages and groups to gain knowledge of the lights.

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