Another great aurora forecast for tonight, but cloudy in much of Alaska

The Kp level over the past couple days has fluctuated up and down and has risen to 5 a few times. The trend is continuing. More auroras are expected tonight in the entire state of Alaska. Have a look out as soon as it gets dark and all night long, if you have clear skies. Clouds and snow are forecast in much of the state, and this will block your view of the auroras.

Canada also has a great chance at lights starting now, and a glow might be seen low on the horizon from the northern bordering states. Always start off your aurora watching by looking north and low.

3-yellow-stars

Do you remember where you were on this day March 16/17, 2013? The best aurora storm ever, lasting days and nights. I did not sleep at all that night, the lights were magnificent. If you enjoy looking back on an aurora date, you can view the archives from this website since I started posting often at ABN archives. I will post again tonight, remembering the epic St Patricks day auroras of the past few years.

The sky and auroras glowed all night long on this day/night March 16/17, 2013

The sky and auroras glowed all night long on this day/night March 16/17, 2013

Auroras were non stop on this day in 2013

Auroras were non stop on this day in 2013

Good data for lights in Alaska tonight where weather is clear.

Data is fluctuating but still looking great for lights in Alaska tonight where the weather is clear. Fairbanks will most likely not see anything due to the snow clouds. Kp 5 was observed earlier and still expected again in the overnight. Kp 4 is likely. This means most of Alaska and Canada will see auroras. Look north.

In the chance the data gets even better, then the states bordering Canada may see auroras tonight. Tomorrow night the aurora forecast is also looking great.

CH HSS G1 Aurora storm expected Monday night

On Monday night, the aurora is expected to show at a Kp level of Kp 5, G1 storm from a coronal hole high speed stream. If you noticed the date, March 14, we are right on time for the “traditional” great March shows we have been having several years in a row. Let’s hope for another epic March! As with any forecast the Kp level could rise or fall. The Kp level suggests the estimated area that the aurora might be seen. The higher the number, the lower the latitude (in the northern hemispehere).

With Kp 5, there is the possibility of seeing the northern lights at mid latitudes, at the approximate areas of the states bordering Canada. There is also a good chance of a better than expected show, and the states a little further south may see the lights. Possible states are: ME, VT, NH, northwest PA, northern NY, WI, MN, MI, IA, SD, ND, MT, ID, WA. Face north and get away from the city. Maybe these states if the storm is bigger than expected: NE, WY, OR. And an even better than expected storm, that is when the states bordering the above states may catch the lights. Always face north, and always have no light pollution in the direction of north. An open field or body of water in your view facing north is perfect.

Entire country of Canada outside of major cities may see the lights. Entire state of Alaska. And for the southern hemisphere, New Zealand’s south island, Tasmania, and possibly the most southern areas of Australia away from city lights depending how big this aurora storm is.

Europe, as it gets dark on your Tuesday night, a high chance of continued aurora storming means a super chance at seeing northern lights, weather pending. All of Northern Europe, and just like last weeks amazing show, much of Scotland, Ireland, more southerly into northern parts of Germany, the Netherlands, and surrounding areas highly possible.

Auroras now with clouds in Fairbanks 1230am

Auroras are being seen now in Fairbanks area but clouds may block your view. Simple bands across the sky, looking northeast. Lower on the horizon from Wasilla and south central areas. The Kp level is 2. Time of this post: 1230am Monday 3-14-16

Tonight’s possibilities

The current forecast for tonight, March 11/12 is a high Kp level of 3. However, we are still seeing the effects of last night and the data is looking mostly good aside from a “stuck” northward Bz. This means that although we may see continued Kp 3 (as forecast) or higher (like early this morning but unlikely as the storm is waning), the aurora may not be brightly seen until the data changes just a bit. In other words—-Wait and be patient. Auroras come out any time of day, but we see them when it is dark. So, anytime it is dark is when you should start looking for them. A question often asked is “What is the BEST time?”. If you do not like my answer of anytime it is dark, then the next best answer would be, in the middle of the night. Patience is key to waiting for auroras to appear. Sometimes we do get lucky like last night, and we see lights all night long.

early this morning, 5am, Healy Alaska

5am, Healy Alaska

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